Bahrain crisis: Saudi soldier and a protester killed.

Tuesday 15 March 2011 .A Saudi Arabian soldier has reportedly been shot dead after Saudi troops entered Bahrain as it cracks down on protests. An expert on Iran tells Channel 4 News that Tehran is unlikely to intervene.


more than 1,000 Saudi troops have entered the tiny island state, as have soldiers from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Kuwait. The troops are from the Gulf countries' Peninsula Shield Force and Bahrain authorities have sent more than 100 armoured vehicles to Pearl Roundabout, the epicentre of the anti-government protests.

Officials in Riyadh said a Saudi soldier has been shot dead by a protester, and another report said a protester was killed in clashes with police in the Sitra area.

Saudi and fellow Gulf troops entered Bahrain following a request from its neighbour. Riyadh said that "any harm done to the security of a member state is considered a harm done to the security of all GCC members."

Bahrain’s protesters denounced the deployment of troops, with the largest Shi'ite party Wefaq saying that any intervention by Gulf Arab forces is a declaration of war and occupation.

A month of clashes between Shiite protesters and security forces intensified on Sunday, with more than 100 people injured as demonstrators demanded democracy through elections from their Sunni monarch (King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa)."

Two weeks ago, protesters could hardly have expected this: Bahrain's police and armed forces ceased clashes on 19 February, after a week of unrest that saw the death of six anti-government demonstrators.

But now Bahrain state TV has announced a three-month state of emergency has been declared to try to quell continuing political unrest threatening the monarchy, and King Hamad said in a statement that the nation's Armed Forces chief is authorised to 'take all measures ' to crush protests.
Who Knows Who: Bahrain's sectarian gulfIran has echoed the protesters' criticism, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast saying: "The presence of foreign troops and meddling into Bahrain’s internal affairs will only further complicate the issue."

Hours after the statement, Bahrain recalled its ambassador to Iran.

The presence of US-backed Saudi Arabia in Bahrain was sure to perturb Tehran, but Arshin Dr Adib-Moghaddan from the School of Oriental and African Studies, and an expert on Iranian foreign policy, told Channel 4 News that the island does not have the potential to be another Vietnam, i.e. a proxy war between the US and Iran.

"If there would be a sustained period of confrontation, and systematic killings of the demonstrators, Iran may be dragged into the conflict. [However] I don't think we would see Iranian boots on the ground; a major diplomatic escalation is more likely," said Dr Adib-Moghaddan, the author of Iran in World Politics.

"Neither Iran nor the US has an interest in a proxy war. In fact both the Obama administration and the Iranian Foreign Ministry say the same: Bahrainis have legitimate demands that need to be met by the monarchy. It is ironic and indicative of a failed strategy towards Iran, that the country can not be included in a solution to the conflict in Bahrain and elsewhere in the region for that matter."

Indeed, the White House has been non-committal and reserved with its comments about GCC forces entering Bahrain, consistent with its remote stance on the Arab uprisings in general.

White House spokesman Tommy Vietor has said that the US does not consider the entry of Saudi Arabian security forces into Bahrain an invasion, but urged Bahrain to exercise restraint.

"We urge our GCC partners to show restraint and respect the rights of the people of Bahrain, and to act in a way that supports dialogue instead of undermining it," Mr Vietor said.

Both Iran and the US are in difficult positions in Bahrain. In the case of the former, a failure to act in Bahrain could be perceived as weakness.

"Iran is likely to step up its rhetoric in accordance with events on the ground in Bahrain. It will use a rhetoric of strength to forestall to be perceived as weak," said Dr Adib-Moghaddan. And among other concerns for the US, its 5th Fleet’s basing in jeopardy.

But whatever happens in Bahrain, it is unlikely to trigger a physical conflict between Iran and the US: there is too much to lose, added Dr Adib-Moghaddan.

"With Iran, it is first gear: diplomacy, second gear: multilateral/regional diplomacy, third gear: regional 'gunboat' diplomacy, and then the options are exhausted."

Meanwhile, the British embassy in Bahrain has closed as fears grow that a bloody crackdown of the protests in the offing. The Foreign Office has advised against all travel to Bahrain.